"Swift rebound" on re-opening say analysts
February 23, 2021
"We can expect significant pent-up demand for retail therapy to be released when non-essential stores reopen after a dark winter," says a leading retail analyst who is predicting a rapid return to high levels of trading once stores re-open.
Many retail commentators have welcomed the Government roadmap to re-open non-essential retail. While there is disappointment that the Easter trading weekend will be lost, the anticipated certainty of the April 12 schedule to exit lockdown means retailers will be ready to rebound and meet the challenge of enhanced demand from consumers.
Evidence from retail analytics consultancy Ipsos Retail Performance shows that although some shoppers were slow to return to non-essential stores after the first lockdown, the return to the shops was far stronger on re-opening after the second lockdown in November. Then footfall during the first week after that lockdown was lifted stood at 65% of the corresponding week of 2019.
The flooring sector outperformed the High Street in general in both these periods and so can expect the effect to be even greater.
Ipsos director Tim Denison says: "I expect to see shoppers pick up where they left off last time around, with non-essential store footfall bouncing back to two-thirds of the levels before the pandemic struck.
"This time around, of course, we have the added advantage that the vaccine rollout is well underway, and this may give some of the elderly who had been reluctant, after previous lockdowns, added reassurance to venture out. From a behavioural science perspective, we believe that all the elements are in place for this to happen.
“While we may have to wait until the second half of the year before things really start to brighten up in the economy, we can expect significant pent-up demand for retail therapy to be released when non-essential stores reopen after a dark winter.”
“While we may have to wait until the second half of the year before things really start to brighten up in the economy, we can expect significant pent-up demand for retail therapy to be released when non-essential stores reopen after a dark winter.”
Andrew Goodacre, chief executive of British Independent Retailers Association, is calling on the chancellor for more help in his budget on March 3 and said: “Whilst it is good for us to have a date, we are very disappointed that non-essential shops will miss the Easter period, especially as they also missed out on most of the busy festive period.
"We therefore want the chancellor to recognise this in the Budget next week and make clear statements about the support that will be available for the next 12 months," he said.
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